Emerging Threat Report - March 2025

Image by Gerd Altmann / Pixabay

Summary: March 2025 saw a sharp increase in terrorist activity across multiple regions, with a resurgence of attacks in South Asia, East Africa, and the Middle East. Domestically, the U.S. and U.K. reported a rise in youth radicalization and lone-actor violence, while coordinated arson attacks on infrastructure drew federal investigation. Globally, the number of countries experiencing terrorist incidents rose to 66, reversing nearly a decade of improvement.

​Notable incidents include the BLA's hijacking of a Pakistani passenger train, an Al-Shabaab attack in Kenya, and the emergence of the "No Lives Matter" group as a significant domestic threat. Legal responses, including arrests and raids across Europe, reflect growing concern over non-state actors and decentralized extremist networks.

1. Domestic Terrorism in the United States

• Attacks on Tesla Facilities: Since January 2025, coordinated attacks have targeted Tesla dealerships and charging stations across the United States. These incidents have involved arson, vandalism, and the use of incendiary devices such as Molotov cocktails. The FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force is investigating these acts as potential domestic terrorism. Attorney General Pam Bondi has labelled these attacks as domestic terrorism, emphasizing the severity of the threat. ​
• Rise of 'No Lives Matter' (NLM): An extremist youth organization known as 'No Lives Matter' has emerged, evolving from online criminal activities to real-world violence, including stabbings and shootings in North America and Europe. The U.S. Department of Justice has classified NLM as a "Level One" terrorist threat, indicating a high priority for law enforcement agencies.

2. International Terrorism Incidents

• Jaffar Express Hijacking in Pakistan: On March 11, 2025, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) hijacked the Jaffar Express train travelling from Quetta to Peshawar, taking approximately 380 passengers hostage. The Pakistani military conducted an operation resulting in the deaths of 64 individuals, including 33 militants and 18 soldiers. The BLA's actions align with terrorism criteria due to their use of violence against civilians to achieve political objectives.
• Yokneam Attack in Israel: On March 24, 2025, a combined vehicular, stabbing, and shooting attack occurred near Yokneam Illit, resulting in the death of an 86-year-old man and serious injuries to an 18-year-old soldier. The assailant, identified as Karam Jabarin, was fatally shot by Israel Border Police at the scene. This incident meets terrorism criteria as it involved deliberate violence against civilians for political motives.
• Garissa Attack in Kenya: On March 23, 2025, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a National Police Reservists camp in Fafi, Garissa County, killing six officers and injuring five others. Two militants were also killed in the confrontation. Al-Shabaab's ongoing violent activities in the region continue to pose significant security challenges. ​

​3. Extremist Activities and Legal Responses

• Arrest of Swedish Journalists in Turkey: Turkish authorities arrested Swedish journalist Joakim Medin on charges of terrorism and insulting the president. Medin was accused of participating in a pro-Kurdish rally in Stockholm that included the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organization. This incident highlights the complexities surrounding definitions of terrorism and the legal frameworks used to address alleged affiliations.
• Raids on Brigade N'Hamedu in Germany: German police conducted raids across six states targeting the German branch of Brigade N'Hamedu, an alleged terrorist organization aiming to overthrow the Eritrean government. Seventeen suspects were investigated for founding or belonging to the group, which has been involved in violent incidents linked to the Eritrean government since at least 2022. ​
• Online Extremist Gangs in the UK: The UK's National Crime Agency has identified a rising threat from online gangs of teenage boys sharing violent and misogynistic content. These groups are linked to crimes such as cyber-attacks, fraud, blackmail, violence, and child sexual abuse. The increase in such activities underscores the evolving nature of extremist threats in the digital age.

4. Global Terrorism Trends

• Increase in Terrorist Activity: The 12th annual Global Terrorism Index reported that the number of countries experiencing terrorist attacks increased from 58 to 66, reversing nearly a decade of improvements. The four deadliest terrorist groups intensified their violence in 2024, leading to an 11% rise in fatalities. In Western countries, lone wolf attacks now account for 93% of fatal terrorist incidents over the past five years.
• Future Outlook: The Office of the Director of National Intelligence projects that terrorist groups will continue to exploit societal fragmentation and weak governance to push their ideologies and gain power through violence. Factors such as regional conflicts, demographic pressures, environmental degradation, and democratic retrenchment are likely to exacerbate grievances that terrorists have historically exploited.

The incidents and trends observed in March 2025 underscore the persistent and evolving nature of terrorist threats globally. From coordinated attacks on infrastructure and public spaces to the rise of online extremist networks, these developments highlight the need for continuous vigilance and adaptive strategies to counter terrorism effectively. Monitoring and addressing these emerging threats remain critical to global security and stability.