GLOBAL CONFLICT REPORT - MAY 2025

The month of May 2025 witnessed continued volatility across global conflict zones, with notable escalations in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. Persistent insurgent violence, civil wars, and transnational terrorism produced substantial humanitarian and geopolitical consequences. This report provides a comprehensive overview of the most significant conflict developments during the month, integrating quantitative casualty data, detailed group-specific activity reports, and analyses of military, political, and economic impacts.

AFRICA

​Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
The eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remained a hotbed of violence. The M23 rebel group, affiliated with Tutsi interests and reportedly backed by Rwanda, launched a series of attacks in North Kivu province. Clashes near Sake and around the strategic town of Kanyabayonga resulted in the deaths of at least 134 combatants and 48 civilians, according to MONUSCO and the Kivu Security Tracker. Concurrently, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), linked to the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP), conducted multiple attacks in Ituri and Beni, including the massacre of 41 civilians in Mayimoya on 16 May.
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Somalia
Al-Shabaab insurgents intensified their asymmetrical warfare tactics across southern Somalia. On 10 May, a suicide bombing at a military base in Lower Shabelle killed 17 soldiers. The group claimed responsibility for the attack, which aligns with their broader strategy to destabilise the Somali federal government and African Union forces (ATMIS). Counterinsurgency operations continued in Galmudug and Jubaland, though reports by the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) noted at least 115 civilians killed or wounded in May.

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger (Central Sahel)
Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) remain locked in territorial competition and conflict with state forces and each other. In northern Burkina Faso, ISGS militants massacred 76 civilians in the town of Seytenga on 21 May. Nigerian security forces repelled coordinated attacks in the Tillabéri region, killing 23 militants. Meanwhile, the ruling juntas in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey intensified cooperation under the Alliance of Sahel States. Still, human rights organisations reported 19 extrajudicial killings and several enforced disappearances linked to Malian security services.

Mozambique
Cabo Delgado province saw renewed violence from Ahlu Sunnah wal Jama'a (ASWJ), also affiliated with ISCAP. On 4 May, insurgents raided the town of Macomia, killing 12 and displacing over 7,000 people. Mozambican and Rwandan forces later retook the area, but intermittent clashes continue. Humanitarian organisations report deteriorating conditions for internally displaced persons (IDPs), with over 100,000 currently without adequate shelter.

ASIA

​Afghanistan
The Taliban government faced escalating attacks by Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). On 22 May, a suicide bombing at a Kabul mosque during Friday prayers killed 33 people. Simultaneously, growing resistance from the National Resistance Front (NRF) in Panjshir and Baghlan provinces was noted, with skirmishes resulting in 21 Taliban casualties across May. The regime's increasing repression of dissent, including public floggings and journalist detentions, further undermines internal stability.
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Pakistan
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for a series of deadly attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. On 8 May, a roadside IED killed eight paramilitary Frontier Corps troops in South Waziristan. Pakistan Air Force operations targeting TTP hideouts reportedly killed 39 suspected militants, though these figures remain contested. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) also intensified attacks on Chinese assets, underscoring the complex insurgent landscape in the region.

Myanmar
Fighting in Myanmar surged as the Arakan Army (AA), in coalition with the Three Brotherhood Alliance, made significant territorial gains in Rakhine State. By late May, the AA had reportedly seized control of Ann and its military garrison, forcing hundreds of junta troops to retreat. Meanwhile, junta airstrikes in Kayin and Sagaing killed at least 116 civilians throughout the month. The UNHCR estimates that over 40,000 newly displaced civilians were reported in May alone.

India
Maoist insurgency activity increased in Chhattisgarh. On 10 May, a coordinated ambush by Communist Party of India (Maoist) cadres killed 12 CRPF personnel near Bijapur. Government retaliation included large-scale combing operations resulting in 26 insurgents killed. Security has been heightened ahead of national elections, with Maoists seeking to disrupt democratic processes in their traditional strongholds.

EUROPE

​Ukraine
The war in Ukraine entered a phase of attritional warfare along the eastern and southern fronts. Russian forces intensified artillery bombardments around Kharkiv and Donetsk, while Ukrainian counteroffensives focused on robotyne and the Dnipro riverfront. Ukrainian General Staff reported 4,198 Russian casualties in May, with 927 Ukrainian soldiers killed. Civilian casualties exceeded 500, mainly due to airstrikes on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Russian drones targeted energy infrastructure, leaving parts of Odesa without power for 11 days.
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Northern Ireland
The Real IRA claimed responsibility for a car bomb that detonated outside a police station in Londonderry on May 15. No casualties were reported, but the incident underscores the group's persistent threat despite increased PSNI surveillance.

Germany
German authorities arrested six members of the Atomwaffen Division, a neo-Nazi militant group, on charges of plotting attacks against refugee shelters and political offices. The group's ties to American and Eastern European cells highlight the growing transnational dimensions of far-right terrorism.

MIDDLE EAST

Syria
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Syrian regime forces engaged in frequent skirmishes in Idlib. Russian airstrikes on Ariha and Jisr al-Shughur on 19 May killed at least 29 people, including 11 children. Humanitarian groups warned of a renewed displacement wave, as over 22,000 civilians fled their homes during the month. Meanwhile, Islamic State cells in the central Syrian desert continued guerrilla-style ambushes on regime and SDF forces.
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Yemen
The Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) escalated drone and missile attacks against southern Yemen and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. A missile strike on 12 May targeted a UAE-backed militia base in Shabwah, killing 18. In response, the Saudi-led coalition resumed limited airstrikes around Marib. Peace talks in Muscat stagnated as ceasefire violations surged. UN agencies report over 150 civilians killed or wounded in May.

Iraq
Islamic State activity resurged in the Hamrin Mountains and Diyala province. A nighttime raid on a federal police outpost on 14 May left nine officers dead. The Iraqi military responded with extensive operations supported by U.S.-led coalition drones, reportedly killing 42 IS fighters. Sectarian tensions remain a concern as PMF units ramp up patrols in disputed territories.

Lebanon
Hezbollah conducted military drills in southern Lebanon, showcasing Iranian-supplied drones and rockets. Israeli defence officials interpreted these actions as psychological signalling amid rising tensions over the northern border. Sporadic border clashes occurred on 27 May, though no confirmed casualties were reported. Lebanon's internal political paralysis continues to hinder meaningful conflict mediation.

SOUTH AMERICA

​Colombia
The FARC-EP continued to expand its territorial influence in the Arauca and Cauca departments. Clashes with government troops on 18 May resulted in 12 soldiers and 19 guerrillas killed. Negotiations with ELN made limited progress in Havana, as ceasefire violations persisted. Coca cultivation in conflict areas has increased by 6.3% compared to April, according to the UNODC.

Venezuela
Tren de Aragua intensified cross-border smuggling operations, clashing with Colombian police and FARC-EP elements. Shootouts in Táchira left 17 dead. The group's trafficking operations now stretch from Chile to Central America, posing regional security challenges.
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El Salvador
Despite a state of exception, MS-13 reactivated cells in San Miguel and La Unión. Targeted assassinations of local officials increased, suggesting an evolving insurgent strategy. Bukele's administration expanded detention facilities, but human rights groups condemned conditions as inhumane.

ROUNDUP

Human Rights Violations and War Crimes
Across conflict zones, multiple instances of human rights abuses were reported. In Sudan, RSF fighters were accused of executing civilians in El Fasher. The UN documented 64 war crimes in Myanmar, including mass killings and systematic rape. Russian forces were implicated in at least three attacks on civilian shelters in Ukraine.
Cyber Warfare and Information Warfare
Iranian and Russian state actors increased disinformation campaigns targeting Western elections and Middle Eastern conflicts. A cyberattack attributed to Chinese APTs disabled communications infrastructure in the Philippines on 29 May, coinciding with increased South China Sea tensions.
Foreign Military Involvement and Proxy Wars
Iranian IRGC units were confirmed to be operating alongside Houthis in Yemen. Turkish drones were used in northern Iraq and Syria for cross-border operations against Kurdish militants. Remnants of the Wagner Group remain active in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali, providing training and logistical support to the junta regimes.
Weapons and Arms Flow Analysis
Reports from Conflict Armament Research indicate increased flows of Iranian-made drones to Hezbollah and Houthis. ISKP was found using Pakistani-manufactured small arms in recent attacks. U.S. and EU arms transfers to Ukraine continued at high levels, including the delivery of newly acquired F-16s.
Impact on Critical Infrastructure
Conflict-related damage to Ukraine's energy grid remains severe, with 17 substations destroyed in May. Pipeline sabotage in Syria disrupted oil flow to the Homs refinery. In Nigeria, Boko Haram damaged a key water treatment facility, affecting 200,000 residents in Borno state.
Public Sentiment and Civil Resistance
Mass protests erupted in Tbilisi against Georgian legislation perceived as pro-Russian. Civil resistance in Iran continued, with university-led demonstrations despite violent crackdowns. In Sudan, women's groups organised aid and resistance campaigns in conflict-affected areas.
Journalists Killed
Seven journalists were killed in May: three in Gaza, two in Myanmar, one in Ukraine, and one in Burkina Faso. Most were killed while covering active combat zones. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) condemned these deaths and called for accountability.
Conclusion
May 2025 underscored the continued lethality and complexity of modern conflicts. Insurgent groups adapted with greater tactical coordination, while state responses remained inconsistent. Humanitarian crises deepen in multiple regions, particularly the Sahel, Myanmar, and Ukraine. As new proxy dynamics and technological warfare emerge, sustained international attention and policy engagement remain essential.