GLOBAL THREAT REPORT - MAY 2025

​May 2025 saw an intensification of insurgencies and terrorism in the Sahel, Somalia, Pakistan, the DRC, and the US. Dominant actors include Islamic extremist groups, Baloch separatists, white supremacist paramilitaries, and M23 rebels. Terrorism is diversifying—high-impact civilian and military targets, plus critical infrastructure attacks. Global indicators (e.g., the Global Terrorism Index) show a rising number of affected countries. Counter-terror strategies must adapt to decentralised, hybrid, and ideologically plural threats.

Africa

Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger)
JNIM (Al‑Qaida affiliate) launched significant coordinated attacks:

In Mali, a vehicle-borne bomb hit a military base in Timbuktu, followed by persistent gunfire.

Boulkessi (near Burkina Faso border): up to 30 soldiers killed.

US Africa Command chief General Langley warned: Sahel is the 'epicentre of terrorism'; JNIM has quadrupled in size since 2022, with violence expanding toward coastal routes, nypost.com
.

Over 100 killed in northern Burkina Faso when JNIM seized Djibo and nearby army bases.

Islamic State Sahel and ISGS continue strikes; combined regional soldier fatalities (Mali, Burkina, Niger) exceed 400 since May.

East Africa (Somalia)

Al‑Shabaab executed a devastating suicide bombing outside a Mogadishu military recruitment base:

Occurred on 18 May, killing at least 20–21 recruits and civilians, wounding 15.

Central Africa (DRC)
M23 rebels intensified offensives around Goma and Rutshuru throughout May:

Mid‑May: attacks in Katoyi, Butare, Koojo.

Late May: control was seized over six villages, over 38 civilians were killed, and 543 houses were burned in Mutanda.

Human rights abuses (abduction, rape, killings) also reported.

Asia

Pakistan – Balochistan & Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Operation Herof 2.0 (Baloch insurgent campaign) escalated sharply:

On 6 May, seven soldiers were killed by an IED in the Machh district, claimed by the BLA.

A series of attacks throughout the month: pipeline bombings, ambushes, attacks on police posts, checkpoints, and Chinese-linked infrastructure.

21 May school bus bombing in Khuzdar killed 11 (including eight children), injured 53. Perpetrated via a suicide vehicle IED, the Pakistani government blamed the BLA/Indian proxies.

Market bombing in Qillah Abdullah: killed 4, injured 20; suspicion on BLA separatists.

Pakistan – North Waziristan
19 May: TTP-linked drone strike in Mir Ali: killed four children in a civilian household; 5 injured.

India–Pakistan tensions
21 May, Pakistan blamed India for the Khuzdar attack amid cross-border tensions sparked by April's Kashmir events.

Middle East

Syria
The Islamic State conducted IED bombings in Tulul al‑Safa (Suwayda Governorate) on 22 May and 28 May, targeting Syrian government forces and rebel fighters.

Europe & Russia

Russia
31 May – 1 June: Explosions on railway bridges in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts caused train derailments, causing seven deaths and ≈90 injuries; being treated as possible terrorist sabotage.

Americas

United States
17 May, a car bombing at a fertility clinic in Palm Springs killed one and injured 4.

1 June (tied to Gaza solidarity event): attacker used Molotovs/flamethrower in Boulder, Colorado event; 16 injured.

Extremist Ideologies & Organisational Shifts

The Base (US-based occult neo-Nazi paramilitary group) publicly planning a summer paramilitary training camp. Active recruitment, crypto fundraising, operations in the US, Europe, and Ukraine.

Homelands' threat landscape is dominated by white-supremacist and insider domestic extremists, more lethal than foreign terror organisations.

Policy & Counter-Terrorism Responses

The UK Home Office introduced measures to proscribe state-linked terror groups like Iran's IRGC, enabling new enforcement powers.

The UN Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTED) convened on 5–6 May, focusing on global counter-terrorism coordination. 

Global Terrorism Index 2025, released 8 May:

The number of countries experiencing terrorism has risen from 58 to 66.

Major actors: IS, JNIM, TTP, al‑Shabaab. In 2024, IS was linked to 1,805 deaths; overall deaths from these grew 11% to 4,204.

High-Risk Regions & Emerging Trends

Region Key Threats
Sahel JNIM, IS–Sahel & ISGS upticks; targeting of military, civilians, expanding routes.
Balochistan BLA-led sabotage and insurgency; escalating casualties
Somalia Al‑Shabaab suicide bombing is a primary recruitment target
DRC M23 rebel offensives with civilian massacres
US Domestic Rise in far-right domestic terrorism and extremist paramilitary activity
Europe & Russia Infrastructure sabotage indicates cross-border operatives.

Monitoring Priorities
Sahel: urgency in tracking JNIM/IS expansion, particularly toward coastal corridors.

Balochistan and Pakistan: Insurgent Capabilities, Militia Dynamics, and Foreign Proxy Allegations.

The Base (US/Europe/Ukraine): funding, recruitment, cross-border links to extremist white-supremacy.

M23 & DRC: humanitarian impacts, rebel governance, regional instability.

US domestic: anticipate training events, ideological radicalisation and lone actor threats.

Infrastructure in Russia/EU: follow up on sabotage incidents for possible spillover or attribution.